Forgetting Business Cycles

I remember when the recession of 1981 ended. A year later, my town emerged from the recession. (Two years after that, my family had climbed out of the recession. Some families never did.) Even now, we hear on the news that the recession in the U.S. has ended, but 16 percent of Americans still cannot find employment.

This is one reason that following business cycles to time your business creation is a dumb idea. Unless your business involves selling stocks and bonds to institutional investors, you shouldn't make decisions based on cyclical timing. By the time we reach unemployment rates below 5 percent again, the next recession might be on its way.

Start now, selling things people want and can buy now. When they have more money, they'll probably buy more. Your business will be viable at any part of the cycle.

A business that forms at the top of the curve, in contrast, may not be needed at the trough. Don't be that business.

Creating an overall strategy

Are you ready to plan your business? Here is the four-step strategy proposed by management consultants Paul B. Carroll and Chunka Mui:

Think big, start small, fail quickly, scale fast.

Think about the big companies that have failed to think big and missed the next economic shift.
On the other hand, most would-be entrepreneurs never actually get started because they keep thinking big. They plan and plan, subconsciously hoping to avoid actually doing anything. All you need to do is to plan enough to be conversant with trends and potential threats. Then start small, hopefully with no investment. 
If you fail, you fail quickly. (New information may become available as a result of starting, and that new info indicates the idea will not work. But don't give up and call it inevitable failing. Being honest with yourself in the failing process is a HUGE challenge.)
When it starts working, then scale up quickly and become big, before competitors take your ideas. 
  
In case you are interested, here is the Whole Article. Thanks to Dan Pink for pointing it out!

More threatening weaknesses

Here are three other weaknesses that can prevent entrepreneurial success.

•  Introversion tendencies that takes away your ability to deal with multiple people. You need to continually negotiate with employees, customers, suppliers, regulators, realtors, investors, bankers, and contractors. Not everyone can do that. Want to start a business so you can be your own boss? Business owners still have bosses: each of their customers. And sometimes those customers are not friendly people. 

(Note: Our definition of introvert is not someone who is shy or is afraid of people or cannot communicate with others. An introvert is someone who needs alone time. An extrovert needs to party with friends to relax, and introvert needs to sit home to relax.)

• Fear of success: some people torpedo their own success because of subconscious fear that success will make them selfish (like that mean old man you knew when you were younger), it will make you forget your roots, or because it will make you proud and uppity. Please release the fear. 
• An unnatural relationship with money. Some people are unable to spend money, some people are unable to not spend money. They don't understand what money really is. The issue probably comes from the way our parents raised us. 

"Following your passion," as self-help gurus love to advise (as though that idea was revolutionary) is in fact insufficient. You might blow up your business, or never even get started, if you don't remove a major weakness.

Your "To Don't" List

In the this forum we have discussed the necessary attributes for success as an entrepreneur. Here we list some of the traits you do NOT want. This is the list of characteristics to avoid or to release.

Top Three Habits of Highly Ineffective Entrepreneurs:

• Inability to handle criticism from multiple bosses:  you remain emotional, angry, or defiant after a customer is hostile and might even remain that way for the rest of the day. As an entrepreneur, each customer is your boss, but you can't let them get under your skin.
• Preference for stability and predictability:  if you need to know the answers before beginning, you might be better off working as a civil servant. 
• Fear of disappointing people:  if you fail, you might disappoint investors, lenders, your mother-in-law (who knew you would fail at everything), and yourself. That fear restricts some people's ability to succeed. 

We will deal with this topic more later. In the meantime, please take some time to analyze yourself. 

Is rural living a huge disadvantage to entrepreneurship?

Our simple answer, given out of principle, is that it does not matter. We live in the country because we love the lifestyle, or it is where we are connected to those we love, or because other circumstances keep us here. So we don't run off to the bright lights of the city. We bloom where we are planted. 


Previously we have addressed the disadvantages of conducting business from a rural area. 


  - Fewer variables in our business plans: we know what we are dealing 
    with in our home markets. Risk, opportunities, customer profiles, etc.
    are easier to analyze. 


  - A longer time to discovery by competitors: we can stay under the radar, 
    hide from copy cats longer.  We are in tiny laboratories, laboring obscurely
    but diligently.


  - A real, connected life: living in a large city is spiritually draining. Being jostled 
    and imposed upon all day can make you "people weary." But where you live, 
    out in the hinterlands, people are genuine and life is real. You are connected 
    to the basic roots of life. You are connected to basic human needs, protected 
    from weird psychological office games. You receive less customer feedback, 
    but you can understand consumers better because you affiliate with people in 
    real ways. 


In the future, you will be a mogul. Someday your business will be important enough that your location will not be relevant. People will travel to speak with you.

Purpose of this Blog (Review)

Here is a review of the main purposes of this blog:

1) encourage rural residents to start businesses instead of wallowing in self-directed grief
2) encourage rural business owners to rev up their businesses
3) encourage communities to support entrepreneurs
The response has been warm. 

Here is our Manifesto:

Agrarian life hones people. In general, rural citizens are smart, industrious, and prudent. 
They can use those traits to create exceptional customer experiences for local or global markets. 
People in the countryside should support and encourage each other. 

Drop the Shipping

Occasionally we mention things here at the Nauvoo Commuter that you might know, but some readers might not know.

If you run an internet site that sells stuff, you don't need to actually take possession and ship it. You can advertise a product on your site, and it can be mailed to your customers from Amazon, another back-office provider, or directly from the manufacturer.

I normally recommend that rural internet retailers sell things that are unique to themselves or their region: local beverages, their own hand-knit mittens, regionally-grown plants, heritage items... something unique. But you might be able to find an alternative to doing the shipping yourself. Just a reminder.

And if you have to do the shipping yourself, don't be intimidated. If your idea is good enough to sell, it is worth the time to research postal regulations.